Back in 1980, Historian Allan Lichtman developed a system to predict the outcome of presidential elections. By looking back through 120 years of electoral history and analysing the broad trends he was able to identify 13 keys that seem to decide the outcomes. Using these keys he has correctly forecast each election since the ‘80s.
Surprisingly most of the keys are not directly related to the attributes of the candidates themselves:
Lichtman doesn’t pay too much attention to the polls, allowing him, even as a life-long democrat, to correctly pick Trump in 2016.
In this video, he goes through the 13 keys and and offers his prediction for the coming election.
Who will be pick for 2020? (*cue dramatic music)